At one point, it seemed as if Arthur Lira, the current speaker, would face no obstacle to get an ally elected to succeed him. That is no longer the case
As soon as Congressman Arthur Lira of Alagoas was re-elected to the speaker position in the Brazilian lower house, talks about his succession in 2025 began in Brasília — congressional rules prevent him from getting a third consecutive term commanding the legislature.
Mr. Lira won with a record-shattering vote — amassing the support of 464 of Brazil’s 513 House members. At that point, it seemed that whoever Mr. Lira would endorse for his succession was going to cruise to the speaker chair. For most of 2023 and the first half of 2024, the Brazilian press treated Elmar Nascimento of Bahia, a close Lira ally, as that presumed successor.
But Mr. Nascimento’s path to the speakership is now littered with obstacles, as other political forces have stepped up their efforts ahead of the February election. So far, closed-room talks debates about the succession have had very little to do with issues of public interest.
Congressman Marcos Pereira, the current deputy speaker and formerly a candidate for the top position himself, on Wednesday said President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would support Hugo Motta, a four-term lawmaker on the verge of turning 35, to run. Messrs. Pereira and Motta are members of Brazil’s Republicanos party, a right-wing political family dominated by Evangelical leaders.
Lula, however, has publicly denied endorsing any candidate.
The government is avoiding making mistakes left-wing administrations have made in the past. Meddling too much in the race for the top positions in Congress has proven a risky move for presidents, that often backfires and puts the government at odds with one of the most important politicians in the land.